So I definitely don’t like that interpretation. If you consider the scenario where you remove 3 lands and some other cards from the deck before activating Liliana, then you run into the issue of only being applicable to a very specific situation. There are alternative approaches, but they all have their downsides. Hence, it applies to any turn in the game, and therefore I like to use these numbers to gain insight for deck building purposes.
If the deck is random, you could remove any number of cards from the top of the deck, and you would still have the same probability. The interpretation of the above probability is that you remove Liliana from the deck and put her ability on the stack for the remaining 59-card deck. Note: As always, the math is trivial, but the question of what probability you’re actually interested in is not. For that reason, I like the clean split of 4 planeswalkers, 4 enchantments, 4 instants, and 4 sorceries in this deck. So it’s a bit of a gamble, but it still draws you over half a card in expectation.Īnd even if you miss, you may get closer to delirium, which is super important for this deck due to Gnarlwood Dryad, Grim Flayer, Mindwrack Demon, and Ishkanah, Grafwidow. If your graveyard is empty when you activate Liliana‘s -2, then the probability of hitting at least 1 creature in this 20-creature deck is equal to 1 – = 0.567 or 56.7%.
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